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Davante Adams scored 110 fantasy points in the end zone last season, so how does a 33-year-old repeat that? And is Lamar Jackson really worth a price tag that now sits closer to Josh Allen than to any other quarterback on the board? Sleeper ADP through the first five rounds is asking drafters to pay a premium cost for five profiles that all carry the same problem underneath them: touchdown dependence, thinning target share, or a backfield that is more crowded than the projections admit. One of these players finished with more end zone scoring than double any other flex option in the league. One plays behind a red zone volume number that led the NFL and has nowhere to go but down. These are not bad players. Every one of them can win a week. The question is whether any of them returns the pick you spend.
We cover all this, plus Kyren Williams and the rest of the early-August fade list, in a no-fence-sitting top-five list hosted by PFN’s Kyle Soppe. The case runs on red zone regression, target competition, and before-contact efficiency, with cheaper alternatives named at every spot on the list. Draft season is short. The cost of a fifth-round miss is the whole roster.
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Inside The Hot List ↓
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0:00 — Welcome
0:16 — Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
1:01 — Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
1:46 — Cam Skattebo, New York Giants
2:38 — Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
3:26 — Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams
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The Hottest Takes You’ll Hear
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*Davante Adams is the No. 1 fade on this board, cleared 65 receiving yards only four times last season, and belongs outside the top 50 overall, with a case for outside the top 75
*Kyren Williams is priced inside the first three rounds of touchdown equity tied to 76 Rams red zone drives, the most in the NFL and the second most in any season since the schedule expanded to 17 games
*Lamar Jackson has seen his share of rushing production decline in three straight seasons, and the Ravens draw five December weeks with one bye and weather exposure
*Cam Skattebo lagged behind Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy in before-contact numbers behind the same offensive line, which makes a top-50 pick a bet on volume that may not arrive
*Chris Olave is going in the same range as Nico Collins, Malik Nabers, and Tee Higgins at pick 27 without the ceiling that any of those three carry
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Watch Next
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The Hot List Shows → https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLF00H5PHVAoipdPGq6vFK6naGxJJzo9Mo
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